Four Possible Outcomes If Donald Trump is Elected President
In a recent broadcast on Fox News, Bill O’Reilly pointed out that Donald Trump has a very consistent message. Mr. Trump says three things nearly all the time:
- I’m going to find the best people!
- We are going to get the job done!
- We are going to make America great again!
O’Reilly pointed out that these three phrases are his first line of defense many times when he is questioned in an interview. This makes him hard to interview. Since we have very little in the way of detailed plans from Mr. Trump, we can examine some of his statements and draw possible outcomes for his presidency (if he is elected). Anything could happen with someone like Donald Trump; however, I believe there are 4 possible outcomes:
- Donald Trump is not able to get very much accomplished
It’s easy for someone to stand up and proclaim how great they are and how successful they have been in business, but that may not translate into success as president. Donald Trump may very well have some good ideas, but there is a 900-pound gorilla in the room called CONGRESS. As President, you have to work with BOTH houses of Congress. Moreover, he would have to deal with the judicial system, which is headed by the Supreme Court.
If Trump tries to strong arm his agenda, he could find a difficult obstacle in the courts, which tend to be very liberal. It is TRUE that he is not being paid by a lobbyist group to run for president; he is self-funded. I personally think that is wonderful. The problem is that all 530+ members of congress ARE paid by lobbyist/special interest groups to vote for certain items. This means they just won’t agree to something because Mr. Trump says he wants to do it.
Furthermore, the members of congress have constituencies that elect them on a regular interval. Being a political science major in college, the number one priority for an elected official is RE-ELECTION! Some of the house members, democrat or republican, are elected from areas with a high voting bloc of immigrant Latinos. He could face serious opposition from some house members and even Senate members for his plan to deport all illegal immigrants.
Republicans presently have a small majority in the Senate. It only takes a few Republicans to walk across the aisle to foil some of Trump’s plans.
2) Donald Trump (with the help of God) Makes America Great Again
It’s conceivable that Donald Trump is able to push through many items through executive order (much like Obama has done with his agenda). However, it is also possible that members of the Senate and House of Representatives listen to what he has to say. America is in a desperate situation and Donald Trump may provide practical business solutions to help lift us out of the mess we are in. Tightening immigration controls and reforming the tax code are all over-due needs for the citizenry of the United States. Tax cuts usually produce a positive consumer outlook, increase personal savings, and increase personal spending. More money being spent in the private sector means more company profits and more jobs that can be created. He is mulling pretty serious tax cuts (from what I have heard).
3) A Second Great Depression occurs
Some historians consider a contributing factor to the Great Depression the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. The world was already staring depression in the face in 1930, but this legislation made it worse. It was originally designed to increase the cost of foreign produce to protect American farmers. It was designed to allow them to sell their goods in America rather than having to compete with foreign farmers in America. This act also increased tariffs on other goods. This caused nations to distrust the US and they began to decrease their trade with America (both imports and exports). For instance, imports and exports from Europe decreased by nearly 70% within three years. Less trade around the world contributed to less competition worldwide. Foreign banks began to fail and the world was plunged into depression. Some consider the Smoot-Hawley Tariff and the following depression to be a leading cause in nationalism among countries like Germany and Italy, which both eventually went Fascist. In a time of economic depression, people tend to look to a strong leader to provide for them.
The US at that time was a creditor nation, and the rest of the world wasn’t able to make enough money to repay debts. The US depression further cascaded after this time.
Donald Trump has discussed putting tariffs on items imported to the United States to offset costs such as building a wall with Mexico. The problem is that the world is so interconnected in our modern times that Mexico may find another trading partner. Moreover, the United States is FAR more depended on trade NOW that it was in 1930. Tariffs on foreign goods will only do more to hurt the US rather than help. Such tariffs may trigger military conflict, as the Smooth-Hawley tariff likely did in the 1930s.
4) China launches a pre-emptive strike on the United States
One of the more chilling possibilities of Donald Trump’s election is that China will finally say “Enough is Enough”. Mr. Trump has dished out some serious charges against China, including their currency devaluation efforts. The problem is that the United States has a serious currency problem of our own. We have been printing money (called Quantitative Easing or QE) without increasing our gold reserves to back up this money. If the US dollar ever gets revalued then the US could experience hyper inflation, leading to another great depression (as discussed above). Worse yet, if interest rates rise, the US will not be able to make interest payments to China and Japan, the two largest holders of US debt. Perhaps worst of all is if the US actually defaults on the debt. Mr. Trump has discussed the possibility of US bankruptcy. In any scenario, this means China’s debt is worthless (and we owe almost $17 trillion to countries other than China…they won’t be happy either).
A greater effective of this would be a pre-emptive strike from China against the United States. China and other nations could come to the US to collect what they are owed in the form of taking land with natural resources on it, or using the US for slave labor. When they strike, they will strike to cripple us. Our frail infrastructure and electronic dependence make us easy targets.
I know this seems far-fetched to some, but $1 trillion is a lot of money. China has man-power to waste. China (and even Russia) are not going to wait a few years for Mr. Trump to build the US military back up to full strength. In other words, they are not going to wait for Mr. Trump to come and “kick their butts”. They will take action long before the US is able to challenge their military buildup.
After looking at the political landscape, these seem to be 4 possible outcomes for the presidency of Donald Trump. We really need to be in prayer, as the last two could forever change the United States as we know it.
State Department. http://future.state.gov/when/timeline/1921_timeline/smoot_tariff.html
Encyclopedia Britannica. http://www.britannica.com/topic/Smoot-Hawley-Tariff-Act
The Economist. http://www.economist.com/node/12798595